Current Conditions
The weather model below depicts winds and vorticity at about
20,000 feet above the surface atf 5 a.m. Friday. The ridge off Western Oregon
has pushed smoke from the British Columbia fires into Oregon resulting in much
of the haze over large parts of the state.
The GOES-16 Satellite figure below is from 10:45 a.m. The
smoke – coming in from the British Vancouver fires -- in the Willamette Valley
and over much of Central and Eastern Oregon appears as light gray. You can also
see moisture moving into Southern Oregon shown by the high-level clouds, which
are slightly brighter, as well as moisture off the coast.
Air Quality across the state is shown in the figure below as
of 11 a.m. Much of the Northern and Western portions of the Willamette Valley,
Shady Cove, and the central cascades are experiencing unhealthy air quality
(red dots). Air quality remains unhealthy for sensitive groups (orange dots) in
the southern Willamette Valley, Eugene, The Dalles and Madras. Most of Oregon
is experiencing moderate air quality (yellow dots), with a few locations along
the southwest coast (Brookings and Agnes) showing good air quality (green
dots).
Air Quality Forecast Today
Ozone levels are expected to
decrease some today as depicted by the National Weather Service air quality
forecast model. Redmond is forecast to be the hot spot today as shown
below.
Smoke from the large fires
within the state will blow west toward Central Oregon. Klamath Falls and
Lakeview are expected to be most affected by the smoke, primarily from the
Blanket Creek and Spruce Lake fires. The figure below illustrates the daily
average smoke as predicted by the Blue Sky smoke model. Note, areas near the Whitewater fire in the
central Cascades such as Detroit and the Warm Springs Reservation will continue
to be impacted by the smoke. In Southwestern Oregon, communities southwest of
the Chetco Bar fire will be impacted. Detailed
forecasts for areas near these fires are posted on this blog.
Air Quality Forecast
for Saturday
Air quality should greatly improve for much of the state, and
we should contend only with smoke from fires within the state, and Northern California.
By Saturday morning the ridge of high pressure begins to
break down, as shown in the figure below, bringing more westerly flow into the
region, and helping clear smoke from the Willamette Valley.
The smoke from the Canadian fires will clear out of much of
the state by tomorrow, and ozone levels will remain lower than they have been
in the past few days.
The figure below shows the daily average smoke expected for
Saturday. Areas west of the fires in the Cascades are expected to be most
impacted. Some light smoke is expected throughout much of Eastern Oregon with a
few grass fires continuing. However, smoke can be much worse during a given
hour, and the areas around Detroit, Breitenbush, Mt. Jefferson, the Meteolius
Basin, Lake Billy Chinook, Madras, the Warm Springs Reservation and Crater Lake
National Park are expected to be the most impacted.
Air Quality Forecast
for Sunday
Smoke will continue to diminish air quality south of the fires
Sunday, as shown below. This southerly
flow may bring smoke back down into the state from the fires to the north on
Sunday, but probably not to the extent we’ve seen this past week. Additionally, a weak low-pressure system off
the Southern Oregon Coast is likely to bring a chance of dry lightning into southwestern
parts of the state increasing in the number of fire starts.
