Smoke Forecast for Umpqua North/High Cascades Complex Fires -- Aug. 29, 2017

Smoke Outlook:  Umpqua North/High Cascades Complex                       

Issued for: Tuesday Aug. 29, 2017 

Air Resource Advisor: Jen Croft, Aaron Wilkerson (T)

Fire Activity:  High Cascades is reported at 18,997 acres. Umpqua North is reported at 18,073. All uncontained fires continue to grow. An earlier start to fire activity due to hot/dry unstable conditions  with an overall increase in fire activity including crown runs, group torching and short range spotting was observed. Smoke columns were visible on the GOES satellite imagery from all fires in SW Oregon. This fire activity contributed to widespread unhealthy air quality within the region. Smoke: Light winds early in the day will provide little relief from conditions experienced Monday morning. In the afternoon smoke will push east of the fires with a stronger developing westerly wind. This may greatly impact the Rogue Valley, Cascades and communities along the east side of the Cascades. However, these westerly winds may provide some relief to Roseburg, Glide and Medford.  Tourists at Crater Lake National Park can expect to see and smell smoke. Visitors should check for road closures and other announcements ahead of time.  Visitors can check https://www.nps.gov/crla/planyourvisit/conditions.htm for updates.
Air Quality Outlook
Sites with air quality monitors
Site	Tuesday 08/29		Wednesday 08/30		Thursday 08/31	Notes for TODAY’s forecast
Roseburg	USG		USG		USG	AM Smoke with potential for clearing  in the afternoon.
Glide	USG		USG		USG	AM Smoke with potential for clearing  in the afternoon.
Toketee**	Very Unhealthy		Unhealthy		Unhealthy	Limited relief all day
Diamond Lake**	Unhealthy		USG	USG		Limited relief all day
Prospect	Very Unhealthy		Unhealthy		Unhealthy	Limited relief all day
Shady Cove	Unhealthy		Unhealthy		Unhealthy	Limited relief all day
Medford	USG		USG		USG	AM Smoke with potential for clearing  in the afternoon
Crater Lake NP (visitor center)	Unhealthy		USG		USG	Heavy smoke with pockets of clearing throughout the day due to shifting wind.
Chiloquin	Unhealthy		USG		USG	Heavy smoke with pockets of clearing throughout the day due to shifting wind.
Klamath	USG		USG		USG	Heavy smoke with pockets of clearing throughout the day due to shifting wind.
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity. AQI estimates for sites do not represent a full 24-hour time period.  Instead they reflect a period of time within the day where smoke impacts would be greatest.
AQI Index		Actions to Protect Yourself
Good		None
Moderate		Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups*- USG		People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy		The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
LimitedVery Unhealthy		Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous		The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion

*Sensitive Groups include people with heart or lung disease, children, pregnant women and older adults

Oregon Smoke Blog: http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com/ Oregon Dept of Environmental Quality http://www.deq.state.or.us/aqi/ Blanket Creek Fire Information https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5431/ Umpqua North Complex Fire Information https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5505/#