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Oregon State Smoke Forecast for Friday Aug. 25, 2017

Issued:  August 24, 2017
Forecaster.  R. Graw, USDA Forest Service

Currently, there are15 large fires burning in Oregon, with the Danner fire in southeast Oregon being the newest, as shown in figure below.

Figure 1.  Current Large Fires in Oregon

A high pressure system will start building over the state over the next few days bring warmer and drier air into the state, with temperatures reaching into the triple digits in Southwest Oregon and upper 90s elsewhere by Sunday.

Tomorrow, haze will occur over much of the state in a swath from Southwestern Oregon to the Northeast portions of the state. At the surface, north winds, will keep the Coast and Willamette Valley free of smoke throughout tomorrow. In Southwestern Oregon, northeast winds are expected in the morning, bringing smoke from the Umpqua North Complex and High Cascades Complex into the Rogue and Applegate Valleys, Brookings will experience smoke from the Chetco Bar fire. Winds will shift in Southwest Oregon later in the day, diminishing smoke concentrations but probably not clearing the Rogue Valley. Areas of South Central Oregon such as Klamath Falls and Chiloquin can expect to be smokey once again, as northwesterly winds are expected in the morning and shifting to southwesterly later in the day.  Bend and Sisters will continue to experience bad air quality, with Sisters being particularly bad between midnight and 11 a.m. due to nighttime drainage flows. The mountain communities south of the fires such as Prospect and Crater Lake National Park will continue to experience smoke as well.

The image below depicts the 24-hour average smoke concentrations at the surface across the state tomorrow. The map is best interpreted in a relative sense rather than absolute concentrations. Thus the darker shades of red indicate areas of heavier smoke. Pink indicates lighter smoke. The concentration of smoke during any given hour can vary significantly from the daily average. Please refer to the Air Resource Advisor Reports posted on this blog for more detailed smoke forecasts associated with the fires.

Figure 2.  Model-Predicted 24-hour Average Smoke for Friday August 25, 2017