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WILDFIRE SMOKE FORECAST
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE
1155 AM PDT SUN JUN 8, 2014
SIGNIFICANT FIRE INFORMATION:
Two Bulls Fire – 10 miles NW of Bend, OR.
For updated “Significant Fire” details, visit ODF’s fire blog at http://wildfireoregondeptofforestry.blogspot.com/ or the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center (NWCC) at http://www.nwccweb.us/index.aspx.
A “Significant Fire Potential” map, for ODF protected lands, is available at (http://nfdrs.smkmgt.com/ODF_Significant_Fire_Potential.png).
AIR QUALITY:
DEQ nephelometer readings are indicating the presence of significant smoke in Sisters, Bend, and Crater Lake, with elevated smoke levels as far south as Klamath Falls. Satellite imagery is detecting a smoke plume extending southward, from the “Two Bulls Fire,” across south-central Oregon; turning southeastward across NE California, northern Nevada, and into western Utah.
Statewide air quality index readings are available at http://www.deq.state.or.us/aqi/index.aspx
SMOKE DISPERSION FORECAST:
Wildfire smoke dispersion depends on the stability of the atmosphere as well as wind direction and speed. A stable atmosphere holds smoke to the ground and an unstable atmosphere allows smoke to rise and dissipate. Smoke is typically mixed to higher altitudes during the afternoon, when daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. Conversely, smoke tends to settle near the ground and in drainages during the overnight and early morning hours.
TODAY:
A stable NW flow aloft is continuing to bring dry weather to the region. Transport winds are generally NW-N across central Oregon; veering to the N-NE across south-central Oregon. However, local SE-SW transport winds are also pushing smoke from the “Two Bulls Fire” get into Sisters, Oregon. Areas of smoke will likely continue from near Sisters to Bend; southward to Klamath Falls this afternoon and evening, with the heaviest smoke concentrations nearest to the active fire. Stabilization of the air mass tonight could also lead to locally increased levels of smoke, as inversions form; trapping smoke near the ground.
Monday - Wednesday:
A dry and stable NW flow aloft should to continue to produce generally NW transport winds during the daytime periods with local drainage flows becoming more dominant in the overnight periods. This will lead possible air quality impacts, in all directions, in the immediate proximity of the “Two Bulls Fire;” possibly extending SE-SW of the wildfire to the California border.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
A stronger weather system is forecast to come onshore Thursday; bringing cooler temperatures, increasing W-NW winds, and a threat of showers and thundershowers to central Oregon.
Current Weather Forecasts from the Portland, Medford, Pendleton, and Boise National Weather Service offices are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/, http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/, http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pdt/, and http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/boi/ respectively.
Current Western Region Fire Weather Forecasts are available via: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/firewx/main.php.
This bulletin is also available at:
ODF Smoke Management Meteorologist